First published on June 5th.

Carraighill has developed a framework to monitor the recovery from COVID-19 (our base case is a one quarter lockdown). This note is the 6th weekly update with latest data.

1. Track the virus (new cases still falling):

  • The share of world GDP past peak is now 77%, up marginally from 75% last week. Three major countries, Brazil, Mexico, and India (7% world GDP) are still not yet at peak.
  • 65% of USA GDP is past peak, up from 61% last week. Worryingly, California and Texas are not yet at peak. 
  • The decision by some states to reopen quickly suggests the US still represents the greatest second wave risk. However, testing capacity is large (20m tests), representing 6% of the population.

2. Monitor the lockdown intensity (easing continues):

  • Countries representing 27% of world GDP have eased in the past 2 weeks. In total, 65% of world GDP remains under severe lockdown. We believe that a significant decline from this level will be required before activity can meaningfully resume. 
  • Poland, France, and Hong Kong have seen the largest falls.
  • China now has one of the highest lockdown stringencies, despite being the first country to significantly ease (with few new reported cases). This varies at the provincial level.

3.   Measure the subsequent recovery (improving):

  • Public transport usage continues to rise gradually in major world cities but remains between 30% to 80% below prior levels.
  • Restaurant bookings have jumped in Germany and Australia following easing of restrictions. They remain down 20% and 40% respectively YoY.