First published on May 22nd.

Carraighill has developed a framework to monitor the recovery from COVID-19 (our base case is a one quarter lockdown). This note is the 4th weekly update with latest data.

1. Track the virus (new cases still falling):

  • The share of world GDP past peak is now 80%, up from 74% last week. Significantly, US states representing 81% of US GDP are now past peak, with Texas and California now modestly below peak.
  • New: We have added an illustration of the BRICS countries and Turkey where the outbreaks appear most severe. Brazil, India and South Africa are not yet at peak

2. Monitor the lockdown intensity (easing continues): Countries representing 57% of world GDP have eased in the past 2 weeks. Japan (6% of world GDP) has seen the largest fall. The US (24% of GDP) continues to ease at the State level and China (16% of GDP) has tightened modestly. Overall, lockdowns remain severe in most countries.

3. Measure the subsequent recovery (improving):

  • Public transport usage continues to rise gradually in major world cities.
  • New: Restaurant bookings have risen sharply in Germany, following its easing of restrictions. OpenTable data shows bookings are down 56% from the same period last year, compared to 100% just 2 weeks ago.

Other developments:
New antibody testing indicates that the rates of herd immunity in Europe are lower than originally forecast:

  • Spain: 5% immunity (11% in Madrid). Models had originally estimated 15% immunity at the end of March.
  • Sweden: 7.3% immunity in Stockholm at the end of April. Models had originally estimated 25%.
  • UK: 5% immunity (17% in London).

This indicates that Europe is vulnerable to second waves of infection, especially as restrictions ease.