First published on May 15th.

Carraighill has developed a framework to monitor the recovery from COVID-19 (our base case is a one quarter lockdown). This note is the 3rd weekly update with latest data.

1. Track the virus (new cases falling):

  • The share of world GDP past peak is now 74%, up from 71% last week.
  • New: We have added testing data to assess which countries are best placed to emerge from lockdown:
    • The US and Germany appear best placed, with the UK and France less well placed.
    • A significant ramp up in testing has taken place across the world. Countries representing 45% of world GDP have seen a 10x or more increase in the tests carries out.

2. Monitor the lockdown intensity (easing is now accelerating): The world is now at a GDP weighted lockdown intensity of 59 (out of 100), a fall from 62 last week. Countries representing 60% of world GDP have eased in the past 2 weeks:

  • Italy and India have seen the strongest fall.
  • Japan, Germany, and the UK (14% of world GDP) have also eased.
  • The US (24% of GDP) has eased at the State level. This is not currently captured in the Oxford data.

3. Measure the subsequent recovery (improving): Public transport usage continues to rise modestly in major world cities.

Other developments:

  • The UK has approved an antibody test with 100% accuracy
  • An antibody study in Spain has found that 5% of the country (11% of Madrid) has contracted the virus. This far from the 75-80% required for herd immunity, but it also indicates that the fatality ratio is c. 10 times lower.
  • Germany’s R value rose to 1.07 this week, before falling to a current 0.88.
  • Denmark’s chief epidemiologist has said that a second wave there is “very unlikely”. The R value in Denmark is currently 0.7, following one month of reopened schools and shops.