First published on May 8th.

Carraighill has developed a framework to monitor the recovery of world countries from COVID-19 (our base case is a one quarter lockdown). This note is the 2nd weekly update with latest data points from that framework:

1. Track the virus (upward revision):

  • We have introduced new data on US states (24% of world GDP) to this report. This reveals that several large states such as California and Texas (5.6% of world GDP) are not yet at peak new cases. 
  • Although the US was late entering lockdown, it is nonetheless seeking to exit rapidly (varies by state). This introduces second wave risks in individual states, which we will monitor weekly.
  • This new data has resulted in a downward revision of our share of world GDP below peak, from 85% last week to 71%. It remains on a downward trajectory globally (see overleaf).

2. Monitor the lockdown intensity (broadly unchanged): The world is now at a GDP weighted lockdown intensity of 62 (out of 100). The countries which have eased this week have a small share of world GDP:

  • In Europe: Austria, Finland, Portugal, Hungary, and Bulgaria.
  • Outside Europe: Nigeria, Malaysia, Philippines, and Colombia.

3. Measure the subsequent recovery (improving):

  • Milan and Berlin have seen a 6% increase in public transport usage this week but remain well below peak.
  • Public transport usage has continued to rise in Hong Kong. It is now 30% below January levels.

Other developments:

  • The Netherlands has accelerated its reopening due to a stronger fall in new cases.
  • Germany is allowing the reopening of bars, restaurants, and cafés from mid-May, subject to social distancing.